Filmsoc Oscars

With the nominations now announced for the 2011 Academy Awards, I propose that we run a little experiment that won’t in any way be dodgy by virtue of the majority of people involved not having seen all of the films under consideration.

For what I’m deeming the main categories, please state:
[list]
*]Who you think will win the Oscar at the Academy Awards on February 27th, and;
*]your preferences (using Single Transferable Vote) for who should win each category, using 1 to denote a top preference.
[/list]
I’ll do a full count sometime between the 20th and 27th Feb, for both polls, so you’ve got a few weeks to decide if you wish to defer!

My expected winners and personal votes (and I appreciate that some of these films haven’t yet been released in the UK, so I’m going on heresay!) are as follows:

Expected winners:

Best Film: The Social Network
Best Director: David Fincher (The Social Network)
Best Actor (in a leading role): Colin Firth (The King’s Speech)
Best Actress (in a leading role): Natalie Portman (Black Swan)
Best Actor (in a supporting role): Christian Bale (The Fighter)
Best Actress (in a supporting role): Melissa Leo (The Fighter)
Best Animation: Toy Story 3
Best Original Screenplay: Inception
Best Adapted Screenplay: The Social Network

My Preferences:

Best Film:
[4]: Black Swan
[5]: The Fighter
[1]: Inception
[8]: The Kids Are All Right
[3]: The King’s Speech
[9]: 127 Hours
[6]: The Social Network
[2]: Toy Story 3
[7]: True Grit
[10]: Winter’s Bone

Best Director:
[1]: Darren Aronofsky (Black Swan)
[4]: Ethan Coen, Joel Coen (True Grit)
[3]: David Fincher (The Social Network)
[2]: Tom Hooper (The King’s Speech)
[5]: David O. Russell (The Fighter)

Best Actor (in a leading role):
[2]: Javier Bardem (Biutiful)
[4]: Jeff Bridges (True Grit)
[5]: Jesse Eisenberg (The Social Network)
[1]: Colin Firth (The King’s Speech)
[3]: James Franco (127 Hours)

Best Actress (in a leading role):
[2]: Annette Benning (The Kids Are All Right)
[3]: Nicole Kidman (Rabbit Hole)
[5]: Jennifer Lawrence (Winter’s Bone)
[1]: Natalie Portman (Black Swan)
[4]: Michelle Williams (Blue Valentine)

Best Actor (in a supporting role):
[1]: Christian Bale (The Fighter)
[5]: John Hawkes (Winter’s Bone)
[4]: Jeremy Renner (The Town)
[3]: Mark Ruffalo (The Kids Are All Right)
[2]: Geoffrey Rush (The King’s Speech)

Best Actress (in a supporting role):
[3]: Amy Adams (The Fighter)
[1]: Helena Bonham Carter (The King’s Speech)
[2]: Melissa Leo (The Fighter)
[4]: Hailee Steinfeld (True Grit)
[5]: Jacki Weaver (Animal Kingdom)

Best Animation:
[3]: How to Train Your Dragon
[2]: The Illusionist
[1]: Toy Story 3

Best Original Screenplay:
[5]: Another Year
[4]: The Fighter
[1]: Inception
[3]: The Kids Are All Right
[2]: The King’s Speech

Best Adapted Screenplay:
[3]: 127 Hours
[4]: The Social Network
[1]: Toy Story 3
[2]: True Grit
[5]: Winter’s Bone

Haven’t seen a lot of these films yet so I might leave it a few weeks before I vote/guess.

Expected winners:

Best Film: Inception
Best Director: David Fincher (The Social Network)
Best Actor (in a leading role): Colin Firth (The King’s Speech)
Best Actress (in a leading role): Natalie Portman (Black Swan)
Best Actor (in a supporting role): Christian Bale (The Fighter)
Best Actress (in a supporting role): Helena Bonham Carter (The King’s Speech)
Best Animation: Toy Story 3
Best Original Screenplay: Inception
Best Adapted Screenplay: The Social Network

My Preferences:

Best Film:
[4]: Black Swan
[5]: The Fighter
[1]: Inception
[10]: The Kids Are All Right
[2]: The King’s Speech
[6]: 127 Hours
[3]: The Social Network
[7]: Toy Story 3
[8]: True Grit
[9]: Winter’s Bone

Best Director:
[3]: Darren Aronofsky (Black Swan)
[5]: Ethan Coen, Joel Coen (True Grit)
[1]: David Fincher (The Social Network)
[2]: Tom Hooper (The King’s Speech)
[4]: David O. Russell (The Fighter)

Best Actor (in a leading role):
[3]: Javier Bardem (Biutiful)
[5]: Jeff Bridges (True Grit)
[2]: Jesse Eisenberg (The Social Network)
[1]: Colin Firth (The King’s Speech)
[4]: James Franco (127 Hours)

Best Actress (in a leading role):
[3]: Annette Benning (The Kids Are All Right)
[4]: Nicole Kidman (Rabbit Hole)
[2]: Jennifer Lawrence (Winter’s Bone)
[1]: Natalie Portman (Black Swan)
[5]: Michelle Williams (Blue Valentine)

Best Actor (in a supporting role):
[1]: Christian Bale (The Fighter)
[3]: John Hawkes (Winter’s Bone)
[5]: Jeremy Renner (The Town)
[4]: Mark Ruffalo (The Kids Are All Right)
[2]: Geoffrey Rush (The King’s Speech)

Best Actress (in a supporting role):
[3]: Amy Adams (The Fighter)
[1]: Helena Bonham Carter (The King’s Speech)
[2]: Melissa Leo (The Fighter)
[4]: Hailee Steinfeld (True Grit)
[5]: Jacki Weaver (Animal Kingdom)

Best Animation:
[1]: How to Train Your Dragon
[3]: The Illusionist
[2]: Toy Story 3

Best Original Screenplay:
[5]: Another Year
[3]: The Fighter
[1]: Inception
[4]: The Kids Are All Right
[2]: The King’s Speech

Best Adapted Screenplay:
[4]: 127 Hours
[1]: The Social Network
[5]: Toy Story 3
[3]: True Grit
[2]: Winter’s Bone

This may help people decide:

http://www.empireonline.com/features/oscars-2011-best-picture-nominees/p1

Each page looks at a best picture candidate with reasons why they will and won’t win the Oscar. Page 11 links to best director, best actor and best actress.

Here are my votes. I’ve put the films I haven’t seen in italics as I’ve guessed where they would fall based on what, if anything, I’ve heard.

Expected winners:

Best Film: The King’s Speech
Best Director: David Fincher (The Social Network)
Best Actor (in a leading role): Colin Firth (The King’s Speech)
Best Actress (in a leading role): Natalie Portman (Black Swan)
Best Actor (in a supporting role): Christian Bale (The Fighter)
Best Actress (in a supporting role): Melissa Leo (The Fighter)
Best Animation: Toy Story 3
Best Original Screenplay: Inception
Best Adapted Screenplay: The Social Network

My Preferences:

Best Film:
[7]: Black Swan
[5]: The Fighter
[1]: Inception
[10]: The Kids Are All Right
[6]: The King’s Speech
[9]: 127 Hours
[2]: The Social Network
[4]: Toy Story 3
[3]: True Grit
[8]: Winter’s Bone

Best Director:
[3]: Darren Aronofsky (Black Swan)
[4]: Ethan Coen, Joel Coen (True Grit)
[1]: David Fincher (The Social Network)
[5]: Tom Hooper (The King’s Speech)
[2]: David O. Russell (The Fighter)

Best Actor (in a leading role):
[4]: Javier Bardem (Biutiful)
[3]: Jeff Bridges (True Grit)
[2]: Jesse Eisenberg (The Social Network)
[1]: Colin Firth (The King’s Speech)
[5]: James Franco (127 Hours)

Best Actress (in a leading role):
[5]: Annette Benning (The Kids Are All Right)
[3]: Nicole Kidman (Rabbit Hole)
[1]: Jennifer Lawrence (Winter’s Bone)
[2]: Natalie Portman (Black Swan)
[4]: Michelle Williams (Blue Valentine)

Best Actor (in a supporting role):
[1]: Christian Bale (The Fighter)
[3]: John Hawkes (Winter’s Bone)
[2]: Jeremy Renner (The Town)
[5]: Mark Ruffalo (The Kids Are All Right)
[4]: Geoffrey Rush (The King’s Speech)

Best Actress (in a supporting role):
[2]: Amy Adams (The Fighter)
[5]: Helena Bonham Carter (The King’s Speech)
[3]: Melissa Leo (The Fighter)
[1]: Hailee Steinfeld (True Grit)
[4]: Jacki Weaver (Animal Kingdom)

Best Animation:
[3]: How to Train Your Dragon
[2]: The Illusionist
[1]: Toy Story 3

Best Original Screenplay:
[5]: Another Year
[2]: The Fighter
[1]: Inception
[4]: The Kids Are All Right
[3]: The King’s Speech

Best Adapted Screenplay:
[2]: 127 Hours
[1]: The Social Network
[4]: Toy Story 3
[3]: True Grit
[5]: Winter’s Bone

Expected winners:

Best Film: The King’s Speech
Best Director: Darren Aronofsky (Black Swan)
Best Actor (in a leading role): Colin Firth (The King’s Speech)
Best Actress (in a leading role): Natalie Portman (Black Swan)
Best Actor (in a supporting role): Christian Bale (The Fighter)
Best Actress (in a supporting role): Hailee Steinfeld (True Grit)
Best Animation: Toy Story 3
Best Original Screenplay: Inception
Best Adapted Screenplay: True Grit

My Preferences:

Best Film:
[5]: Black Swan
[8]: The Fighter
[1]: Inception
[10]: The Kids Are All Right
[6]: The King’s Speech
[9]: 127 Hours
[7]: The Social Network
[4]: Toy Story 3
[2]: True Grit
[3]: Winter’s Bone

Best Director:
[1]: Darren Aronofsky (Black Swan)
[3]: Ethan Coen, Joel Coen (True Grit)
[2]: David Fincher (The Social Network)
[4]: Tom Hooper (The King’s Speech)
[5]: David O. Russell (The Fighter)

Best Actor (in a leading role):
[5]: Javier Bardem (Biutiful)
[3]: Jeff Bridges (True Grit)
[1]: Jesse Eisenberg (The Social Network)
[2]: Colin Firth (The King’s Speech)
[4]: James Franco (127 Hours)

Best Actress (in a leading role):
[4]: Annette Benning (The Kids Are All Right)
[5]: Nicole Kidman (Rabbit Hole)
[1]: Jennifer Lawrence (Winter’s Bone)
[2]: Natalie Portman (Black Swan)
[3]: Michelle Williams (Blue Valentine)

Best Actor (in a supporting role):
[2]: Christian Bale (The Fighter)
[1]: John Hawkes (Winter’s Bone)
[4]: Jeremy Renner (The Town)
[5]: Mark Ruffalo (The Kids Are All Right)
[3]: Geoffrey Rush (The King’s Speech)

Best Actress (in a supporting role):
[3]: Amy Adams (The Fighter)
[4]: Helena Bonham Carter (The King’s Speech)
[2]: Melissa Leo (The Fighter)
[1]: Hailee Steinfeld (True Grit)
[5]: Jacki Weaver (Animal Kingdom)

Best Animation:
[2]: How to Train Your Dragon
[3]: The Illusionist
[1]: Toy Story 3

Best Original Screenplay:
[5]: Another Year
[2]: The Fighter
[1]: Inception
[4]: The Kids Are All Right
[3]: The King’s Speech

Best Adapted Screenplay:
[5]: 127 Hours
[2]: The Social Network
[4]: Toy Story 3
[1]: True Grit
[3]: Winter’s Bone

Looks like we’re right about Best Actress :wink:

Trust you to lower the tone, Tylds. Jeez!

I totally read this as us having our own awards ceremony… :blush:

Leaving mine as late as possible :stuck_out_tongue:

Expected winners:

Best Film: The King’s Speech
Best Director: David Fincher (The Social Network)
Best Actor (in a leading role): Colin Firth (The King’s Speech)
Best Actress (in a leading role): Natalie Portman (Black Swan)
Best Actor (in a supporting role): Christian Bale (The Fighter)
Best Actress (in a supporting role): Amy Adams (The Fighter)
Best Animation: Toy Story 3
Best Original Screenplay: Inception
Best Adapted Screenplay: The Social Network

My Preferences:

Best Film:
[1]: Black Swan
[6]: The Fighter
[5]: Inception
[8]: The Kids Are All Right
[2]: The King’s Speech
[9]: 127 Hours
[4]: The Social Network
[3]: Toy Story 3
[7]: True Grit
[10]: Winter’s Bone

Best Director:
[1]: Darren Aronofsky (Black Swan)
[5]: Ethan Coen, Joel Coen (True Grit)
[2]: David Fincher (The Social Network)
[3]: Tom Hooper (The King’s Speech)
[4]: David O. Russell (The Fighter)

Best Actor (in a leading role):
[3]: Javier Bardem (Biutiful)
[5]: Jeff Bridges (True Grit)
[2]: Jesse Eisenberg (The Social Network)
[1]: Colin Firth (The King’s Speech)
[4]: James Franco (127 Hours)

Best Actress (in a leading role):
[4]: Annette Benning (The Kids Are All Right)
[2]: Nicole Kidman (Rabbit Hole)
[5]: Jennifer Lawrence (Winter’s Bone)
[1]: Natalie Portman (Black Swan)
[3]: Michelle Williams (Blue Valentine)

Best Actor (in a supporting role):
[1]: Christian Bale (The Fighter)
[5]: John Hawkes (Winter’s Bone)
[4]: Jeremy Renner (The Town)
[3]: Mark Ruffalo (The Kids Are All Right)
[2]: Geoffrey Rush (The King’s Speech)

Best Actress (in a supporting role):
[3]: Amy Adams (The Fighter)
[2]: Helena Bonham Carter (The King’s Speech)
[4]: Melissa Leo (The Fighter)
[1]: Hailee Steinfeld (True Grit)
[5]: Jacki Weaver (Animal Kingdom)

Best Animation:
[3]: How to Train Your Dragon
[2]: The Illusionist
[1]: Toy Story 3

Best Original Screenplay:
[5]: Another Year
[3]: The Fighter
[1]: Inception
[4]: The Kids Are All Right
[2]: The King’s Speech

Best Adapted Screenplay:
[4]: 127 Hours
[1]: The Social Network
[3]: Toy Story 3
[2]: True Grit
[5]: Winter’s Bone

Not too keen on Winter’s Bone then?

Heh, nah, I was thoroughly underwhelmed by it when I had previously been looking forward to it.

Also, where are the predictions/preferences for all the technical awards? :stuck_out_tongue:
I reckon Inception and Social Network will scoop a few of those.

Here’s an online stream for anyone that’s still up…

Here are the final results of the Filmsoc Oscars:

Best Film: Inception
Best Director: Darren Aronofsky (Black Swan)
Best Actor (in a leading role): Colin Firth (The King’s Speech)
Best Actress (in a leading role): Natalie Portman (Black Swan)
Best Actor (in a supporting role): Christian Bale (The Fighter)
Best Actress (in a supporting role): Hailee Steinfeld (True Grit)
Best Animation: Toy Story 3
Best Original Screenplay: Inception
Best Adapted Screenplay: The Social Network

Overall we picked five of the nine awards the same. The big loser compared to the Oscars was the King’s Speech with Black Swan and Inception benefiting. It’s also nice to see True Grit get some recognition.

As for guessing the winners, none of us got everything right. The final scores were:

George: 7
Rob: 6
Owen: 6
Natalie: 5
Fergus: 5